September 10, 2013

The Perfect Storm (Economically Speaking) a Year Later. The Worst (Best) is Yet To Come.


To understand this article you will need to read my article from a year ago with a similar name.  The Perfect Storm (Economically Speaking).  What's different, what's new, what have we learned and how far have we come and where are we going?

Capital, even though it is hemorrhaging slowly, is still pent-up. It needs to flow faster to the capital demand and will as it realizes it is missing opportunities (which it is).  What do the markets think?  Go to almost any trade show this year - They are bigger and the crowds are huge, much larger than just last year.  This is definitely a leading indicator of the state of our economy (Peter Lynch style).

Businesses are spending and hiring; the pace on both is going to increase.  Last year I felt like we were in a sling shot still pulling back (potential energy) - it's definitely moving forward now (kinetic energy).

As I have said before, a government that is indecisive, causes money to sit still - no one invests when the rules-of-the-game have not been defined.  Today, even though the rules still need some tuning, the capital and venture markets can no longer hold back - we are moving to flowing dollars.  What is even more amazing (IMHO), business activity is driving our government policies to make decisions (immigration reform).

So what else is coming?  High interest rates, high inflation, low unemployment, cheap non-exportable energy (venture $$$ abuzz), re-urbanization and localization.

Fun times ahead, I wish I were a young entrepreneur again; I envy my children and my grand children as there is a bright future for the young entrepreneur.

Oh, and I took the summer off from writing :) .

Bob